Fatih Karagümrük vs Kocaelispor - AI Match Preview

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Turkey Süper Lig

Fatih Karagümrük

Kocaelispor

Preview Team statistics AI Prediction H2H Team recent Odds Lineups Injuries / suspensions League table

Match Events

Habib Keita

22'

Botond Balogh

35'

Show

Serginho

50'

D. D. Fofana

65'

Daniel Johnson

75'

90'

B. Petkovic

Preview

Karagümrük vs Kocaelispor: Hosts Seek Home Respite Amidst Defensive Woes

Fatih Karagümrük, struggling for wins at home and conceding heavily, host Kocaelispor who boast a strong home record but falter on the road. This Süper Lig clash sees two teams with contrasting recent fortunes but similar overall defensive vulnerabilities.

This fixture pits Karagümrük's defensive fragility against Kocaelispor's inconsistent away performance. Karagümrük's tendency to concede at home, coupled with their lack of attacking bite, suggests they may adopt a deeper defensive posture to try and stem the tide. However, Kocaelispor's own away struggles, particularly their low scoring rate, means they might struggle to break down even a struggling defence. The midfield battle could be crucial, with Kocaelispor’s higher possession average in recent games potentially allowing them to dictate play, but their ability to convert that into genuine chances away from home remains questionable.

Team statistics

Turkey Süper Lig

Fatih Karagümrük

Kocaelispor

Matches played

2 - 2 - 11

Results

5 - 4 - 6

13.3%

Win %

33.3%

0.9

Goals scored

0.8

1.9

Goals conceded

2.8

Shots on target

3.5

5.3

Shots off target

4.3

2.9

Blocked shots

2.3

47.8

Ball possession

48.9

76.5

Pass accuracy

77.9

14.3

Fouls

14.4

4.1

Goalkeeper saves

2.2

Yellow cards

2.4

0.1

Red cards

0.1

League averages

Key points

• Karagümrük have won only one of their last eight home games, conceding 1.9 goals per match.
• Kocaelispor have a poor away record, losing five of their last seven away fixtures.
• Both teams have conceded an average of over 1.7 goals per game in their respective away matches this season.

AI Prediction

Despite Karagümrük's dire overall form and particularly poor home record, Kocaelispor's away record is equally dismal, with a high concession rate. The odds suggest a competitive match, with slight favouritism towards the away side, but Karagümrük's recent home uptick in scoring, albeit still losing, combined with Kocaelispor’s recent away goals conceded, points towards both teams finding the net. Given the defensive records, an over 2.5 goals outcome feels likely, and the hosts might just edge it at home if they can tighten up slightly.

AI

Confidence

Pick

Recent Win% (20)
nova-lite-v1 (fr)

by amazon

70%

AWAY

BTTS NO

2.5 UNDER

1x2

53%

O/U

33%

BTTS

47%
gemini-2.0-flash-lite-001 (ar)

by google

68%

AWAY

BTTS NO

2.5 UNDER

1x2

53%

O/U

53%

BTTS

50%
gemini-2.0-flash-lite-001 (es)

by google

68%

AWAY

BTTS NO

2.5 UNDER

1x2

63%

O/U

57%

BTTS

57%
gemini-2.0-flash-lite-001 (ru)

by google

68%

AWAY

BTTS NO

2.5 UNDER

1x2

60%

O/U

37%

BTTS

53%
gemini-2.0-flash-lite-001 (vi)

by google

70%

AWAY

BTTS NO

2.5 UNDER

1x2

63%

O/U

47%

BTTS

33%
gemini-2.5-flash-lite (en)

by google

65%

HOME

BTTS YES

2.5 OVER

1x2

57%

O/U

47%

BTTS

40%
llama-3.1-8b-instruct (it)

by meta-llama

75%

HOME

BTTS YES

2.5 OVER

1x2

53%

O/U

47%

BTTS

23%
llama-3.1-8b-instruct (nl)

by meta-llama

72%

AWAY

BTTS YES

2.5 UNDER

1x2

60%

O/U

33%

BTTS

40%
llama-3.3-70b-instruct (pt)

by meta-llama

60%

AWAY

BTTS NO

2.5 UNDER

1x2

60%

O/U

37%

BTTS

33%
phi-4-multimodal-instruct (id)

by microsoft

85%

AWAY

BTTS NO

2.5 UNDER

1x2

53%

O/U

33%

BTTS

37%
mistral-nemo (de)

by mistralai

70%

X DRAW

BTTS YES

2.5 OVER

1x2

50%

O/U

50%

BTTS

60%
gpt-oss-120b:exacto (tr)

by openai

78%

AWAY

BTTS NO

2.5 UNDER

1x2

50%

O/U

53%

BTTS

63%
qwen-turbo (th)

by qwen

85%

AWAY

BTTS YES

2.5 OVER

1x2

57%

O/U

43%

BTTS

23%
grok-4.1-fast (ja)

by x-ai

68%

AWAY

BTTS NO

2.5 UNDER

1x2

57%

O/U

63%

BTTS

63%
grok-4.1-fast (ko)

by x-ai

72%

AWAY

BTTS NO

2.5 UNDER

1x2

60%

O/U

53%

BTTS

53%

H2H

Süper Lig

Match date	Team	Score	Team	O/U 2.5	BTTS
7/21/2025	HOME Fatih Karagümrük	D 0 - 0 D	Kocaelispor	U	N
3/16/2025	HOME Fatih Karagümrük	D 1 - 1 D	Kocaelispor	U	Y
11/2/2024	Fatih Karagümrük	L 1 - 2 W	Kocaelispor AWAY	O	Y

Includes records from 2023 onwards.

Team recent

Fatih Karagümrük

H/A	VS	Score	Results	O/U 2.5	BTTS	Cor 9.5
AWAY	Genclerbirligi	0 - 3	L	O	N	N
HOME	Beşiktaş	0 - 2	L	U	N	N
AWAY	Eyüpspor	1 - 1	D	U	Y	Y
HOME	Konyaspor	2 - 0	W	U	N	N
AWAY	Rizespor	0 - 1	L	U	N	N
HOME	Kayserispor	2 - 2	D	O	Y	N
AWAY	Fenerbahçe	1 - 2	L	O	Y	Y
HOME	Gazişehir Gaziantep	0 - 2	L	U	N	Y
HOME	Trabzonspor	3 - 4	L	O	Y	N
AWAY	Samsunspor	2 - 3	L	O	Y	Y

Fatih Karagümrük have endured a torrid season, with their overall record showing a heavy reliance on away form, which isn't even a strong suit. Their home form is particularly concerning, with a mere single win from eight games, conceding nearly two goals per home outing. Recent form offers little respite, having failed to win in their last three, and their last home game saw them concede twice despite a surprising uptick in possession. The last match was a dismal 3-0 defeat on the road, highlighting persistent defensive frailties, with zero shots on goal from limited possession.

Kocaelispor

H/A	VS	Score	Results	O/U 2.5	BTTS	Cor 9.5
HOME	Kasımpaşa	0 - 0	D	U	N	Y
HOME	Genclerbirligi	1 - 0	W	U	N	Y
AWAY	Göztepe	0 - 0	D	U	N	Y
HOME	Galatasaray	1 - 0	W	U	N	N
AWAY	Başakşehir	0 - 1	L	U	N	Y
HOME	Alanyaspor	2 - 0	W	U	N	N
AWAY	Konyaspor	3 - 2	W	O	Y	N
HOME	Eyüpspor	1 - 0	W	U	N	N
AWAY	Beşiktaş	1 - 3	L	O	Y	Y
HOME	Rizespor	1 - 1	D	U	Y	Y

Kocaelispor present a curious case. While their overall away record mirrors their home struggles, with only one win and a concerning 1.7 goals conceded per game, their recent away form has seen a slight improvement, drawing their last away fixture and scoring in two of their last three away matches. However, their last outing was a goalless draw at home, a stark contrast to their recent trend of conceding on the road. Despite possessing a decent scoring average overall, their away goal threat has diminished, averaging under a goal per away game this season.

Over

Under

Yes

Odds

1x2

HOME

3.5

DRAW

AWAY

2.2

2.5 OVER/UNDER

OVER

2.3

UNDER

1.6

BTTS

YES

1.91

1.8

Lineups