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Vitoria vs Chapecoense: Home Strength Tested in Serie A
Vitoria host Chapecoense in a Serie A fixture that pits the hosts' formidable home record against Chapecoense's desperate need for points. While Vitoria have been dominant at home, Chapecoense's recent attacking surge, despite poor away form, suggests this could be a more open contest than the league table implies.
This fixture presents a classic home strength versus away weakness narrative, but Chapecoense's recent offensive surge complicates matters. Vitoria will likely aim to leverage their home advantage and establish a compact defensive structure, looking to exploit Chapecoense's poor away record. However, given Chapecoense's recent high shot volume and possession stats in their away games, they may attempt to play on the front foot, which could open up opportunities for Vitoria on the counter. The key will be Vitoria's ability to re-establish their defensive solidity at home, especially against a Chapecoense side that seems to be finding more attacking rhythm despite their results.
Team statistics
Team Stats Comparison
Key points
- • Vitoria have won 66.7% of their home games this season but have lost two of their last three.
- • Chapecoense are yet to win an away game in the league this season, drawing 3 and losing 9.
- • Chapecoense's last away game saw them register 32 shots but still lose 1-3.
AI Prediction
Vitoria's home record is too strong to ignore, and they are the clear favourites according to the odds. However, Chapecoense's recent offensive output, particularly their high shot volumes in away games, suggests they possess the capability to trouble Vitoria's defence. The hosts' recent home form has been shaky, and their last home game was a goalless defeat, indicating potential defensive frailties. Therefore, I expect both teams to find the net, with Vitoria ultimately securing the win.
- AIConfidencePickRecent Win% (20)
nova-lite-v1 (fr)by amazon70% HOMEBTTS NO2.5 UNDER1x250%O/U67%BTTS63%
deepseek-v4-pro (ja)by deepseek78% HOMEBTTS NO2.5 UNDER1x237%O/U47%BTTS33%
gemini-2.5-flash-lite (en)by google65% HOMEBTTS YES2.5 OVER1x257%O/U63%BTTS63%
H2H
Team recent
Vitoria Team recent
| Match date | H/A | VS | Score | Results | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | Cor 9.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AWAY | Atletico-MG | 1 - 2 | - | ||||
HOME | Bahia | 0 - 2 | - | ||||
HOME | Botafogo | 1 - 0 | - | ||||
AWAY | Flamengo | 0 - 2 | - | ||||
HOME | Palmeiras | 0 - 4 | - | ||||
AWAY | Botafogo | 0 - 0 | - | ||||
HOME | Vasco DA Gama | 1 - 0 | - | ||||
AWAY | Santos | 1 - 3 | - | ||||
HOME | Internacional | 2 - 0 | - | ||||
AWAY | RB Bragantino | 0 - 2 | - |
Vitoria have built their season on a bedrock of home form, securing two-thirds of their wins in front of their own supporters. They average a healthy 1.3 goals per game at home, conceding less than a goal against. However, recent performances tell a different story, with two losses in their last three home matches, including a worrying 0-2 defeat in their most recent outing where they failed to score. This dip in home form, particularly the lack of attacking output in the last home game, will be a concern.
Chapecoense-sc Team recent
| Match date | H/A | VS | Score | Results | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | Cor 9.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AWAY | Gremio | 1 - 3 | - | ||||
HOME | Sao Paulo | 1 - 0 | - | ||||
HOME | Bahia | 3 - 3 | - | ||||
AWAY | Coritiba | 1 - 2 | - | ||||
AWAY | Santos | 2 - 2 | - | ||||
HOME | Flamengo | 0 - 4 | - | ||||
AWAY | Bahia | 0 - 2 | - | ||||
AWAY | Palmeiras | 0 - 1 | - | ||||
AWAY | Cruzeiro | 1 - 2 | - | ||||
HOME | Remo | 2 - 3 | - |
Chapecoense-sc are in a precarious position, with over half their league games ending in defeat. Their away record is particularly grim, having failed to win any of their 12 away fixtures, conceding nearly two goals per game. Despite this, their recent form shows a surprising uptick in attacking output, scoring 1.7 goals per game over their last three. Their last outing was a statistical anomaly, where they dominated possession and shots but ultimately lost 1-3, suggesting a team that can create but struggles to convert or defend effectively.
Odds