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Parma vs Lazio: Can the hosts upset the odds in Serie A?
Parma host Lazio in Serie A, with the home side struggling for wins but showing recent signs of life. Lazio, meanwhile, have a poor away record this season, making this a potentially tricky fixture despite their superior overall form and odds.
This encounter pits Parma's desire to build on recent improvements against Lazio's inconsistent away form. The hosts, despite their struggles, have shown a willingness to get shots off recently. They will likely aim to disrupt Lazio's rhythm with a compact defensive shape, hoping to catch the visitors on the break. Lazio, who typically enjoy more possession and higher passing accuracy, will need to find a way to break down a potentially stubborn home defence without falling victim to counter-attacks, a task they've found difficult away from home this season.
Team statistics
Team Stats Comparison
Key points
- • Parma have won only once at home all season, conceding 1.4 goals per game.
- • Lazio have secured just one away win in seven league matches.
- • Despite recent form improvements for Parma, their overall scoring average remains low at 0.7 goals per game.
AI Prediction
Lazio are the bookmakers' favourite, but their away form is a significant concern, contrasting sharply with their strong home record. Parma's recent upturn in results, despite a poor last home outing, suggests they could make this a difficult game. The data points towards a low-scoring affair, with both sides struggling to consistently put the ball in the net, especially away from home for Lazio. A draw with both teams finding the net feels like the most balanced outcome.
- AIConfidencePickRecent Win% (20)
nova-lite-v1 (fr)by amazon70%X DRAWBTTS NO2.5 UNDER1x243%O/U60%BTTS63%
gemini-2.0-flash-lite-001 (ar)by google68%
AWAYBTTS NO2.5 UNDER1x260%O/U63%BTTS57%
gemini-2.0-flash-lite-001 (es)by google68%
AWAYBTTS NO2.5 UNDER1x247%O/U50%BTTS50%
gemini-2.0-flash-lite-001 (ru)by google68%
AWAYBTTS NO2.5 UNDER1x253%O/U63%BTTS53%
gemini-2.0-flash-lite-001 (vi)by google72%
AWAYBTTS YES2.5 OVER1x257%O/U57%BTTS60%
gemini-2.5-flash-lite (en)by google68%X DRAWBTTS YES2.5 UNDER1x247%O/U50%BTTS57%
llama-3.1-8b-instruct (it)by meta-llama80%X DRAWBTTS YES2.5 OVER1x243%O/U40%BTTS50%
llama-3.1-8b-instruct (nl)by meta-llama85%
AWAYBTTS YES2.5 OVER1x247%O/U43%BTTS40%
llama-3.3-70b-instruct (pt)by meta-llama65%
AWAYBTTS YES2.5 OVER1x250%O/U63%BTTS57%
phi-4-multimodal-instruct (id)by microsoft82%
AWAYBTTS YES2.5 OVER1x243%O/U53%BTTS57%
mistral-nemo (de)by mistralai70%
HOMEBTTS YES2.5 OVER1x243%O/U53%BTTS63%
gpt-oss-120b:exacto (tr)by openai78%
AWAYBTTS YES2.5 OVER1x233%O/U57%BTTS53%
qwen-turbo (th)by qwen85%
AWAYBTTS YES2.5 OVER1x240%O/U47%BTTS50%
grok-4.1-fast (ja)by x-ai70%X DRAWBTTS NO2.5 UNDER1x247%O/U60%BTTS63%
grok-4.1-fast (ko)by x-ai70%
HOMEBTTS NO2.5 UNDER1x257%O/U57%BTTS57%
H2H
Team recent
Parma Team recent
| Match date | H/A | VS | Score | Results | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | Cor 9.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AWAY | Pisa | 1 - 0 | |||||
HOME | Udinese | 0 - 2 | |||||
AWAY | Verona | 2 - 1 | |||||
HOME | AC Milan | 2 - 2 | |||||
HOME | Bologna | 1 - 3 | |||||
AWAY | AS Roma | 1 - 2 | |||||
HOME | Como | 0 - 0 | |||||
AWAY | Genoa | 0 - 0 | |||||
HOME | Lecce | 0 - 1 | |||||
HOME | Torino | 2 - 1 |
Parma are mired in a difficult campaign, having secured just three wins from fourteen league matches. Their home form is particularly concerning, with only one victory in seven attempts, often leaking goals at a rate of nearly one and a half per game. However, the last three fixtures have seen an upturn in performance, with two wins and a respectable goal average of one per game, suggesting they might be building some momentum. The last outing, though a home loss, saw them concede twice while failing to score, a worrying return to their season-long scoring woes.
Lazio Team recent
| Match date | H/A | VS | Score | Results | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | Cor 9.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HOME | Bologna | 1 - 1 | |||||
AWAY | AC Milan | 0 - 1 | |||||
HOME | Lecce | 2 - 0 | |||||
AWAY | Inter | 0 - 2 | |||||
HOME | Cagliari | 2 - 0 | |||||
AWAY | Pisa | 0 - 0 | |||||
HOME | Juventus | 1 - 0 | |||||
AWAY | Atalanta | 0 - 0 | |||||
HOME | Torino | 3 - 3 | |||||
AWAY | Genoa | 3 - 0 |
Lazio present a mixed picture, with their overall record showing more draws than wins or losses. Their home form is their clear strength, where they are scoring nearly two goals a game. Away from home, however, they have struggled significantly, winning only once in seven matches and conceding almost a goal a game. Their recent form has also dipped, with only one win in their last three, and their last outing was a frustrating 1-1 draw at home, followed by a heavy away defeat where they failed to score. This suggests a team that can be potent at home but finds it difficult to break down opponents on the road.
Odds
Parma
(4-4-2)
Lazio
(4-3-3)
Injuries / suspensions
Parma Injuries / suspensions
Lazio Injuries / suspensions
