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Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima: Apertura Quarter-Final Showdown
Deportivo Pasto host Deportes Tolima in a crucial Apertura quarter-final first leg. While Pasto have shown strong home form, their recent overall results have been bleak. Tolima, conversely, have proven formidable at home but struggle away, setting up an intriguing tactical battle.
This fixture pits Deportivo Pasto's strong home advantage against Deportes Tolima's superior overall consistency and potent home attack. Expect Pasto to try and set a high tempo early, leveraging their home crowd and possession stats to probe Tolima's relatively weaker away defence. Tolima, if they can maintain their defensive shape and avoid conceding early, will likely rely on patient build-up play, aiming to exploit any gaps that Pasto leave while transitioning, using their higher average possession to control spells of the game.
Team statistics
Team Stats Comparison
Key points
- • Deportivo Pasto has won 60% of their matches at home this season, conceding only 0.8 goals per game.
- • Deportes Tolima has secured only one away win in their last nine matches.
- • Pasto's last three games have all ended in defeat, conceding 2.3 goals on average.
AI Prediction
Despite Deportivo Pasto's worrying recent form, their home record is formidable, and they are facing a Deportes Tolima side that has struggled significantly on the road. The odds suggest a relatively tight game, but Pasto's ability to score at home and Tolima's recent uptick in attacking output in their last three away games, coupled with their recent win, points towards goals. I'm backing the hosts to edge it, leaning on their home advantage.
- AIConfidencePickRecent Win% (20)
nova-lite-v1 (fr)by amazon72%
AWAYBTTS YES2.5 OVER1x260%O/U40%BTTS43%
gemini-2.0-flash-lite-001 (ar)by google68%
HOMEBTTS NO2.5 UNDER1x247%O/U47%BTTS70%
gemini-2.0-flash-lite-001 (es)by google68%
AWAYBTTS NO2.5 UNDER1x240%O/U63%BTTS70%
H2H
Team recent
Deportivo Pasto Team recent
| Match date | H/A | VS | Score | Results | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | Cor 9.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AWAY | Deportes Tolima | 0 - 1 | - | ||||
AWAY | Junior | 3 - 4 | - | ||||
HOME | Santa Fe | 1 - 2 | - | ||||
AWAY | Jaguares | 3 - 2 | - | ||||
HOME | Deportes Tolima | 1 - 0 | - | ||||
AWAY | Alianza Valledupar | 0 - 0 | - | ||||
HOME | Atletico Nacional | 1 - 2 | - | ||||
AWAY | Fortaleza FC | 2 - 1 | - | ||||
HOME | Chico | 2 - 0 | - | ||||
AWAY | Once Caldas | 2 - 4 | - |
Deportivo Pasto have secured a respectable 60% of their points at home this season, averaging 1.4 goals and conceding just 0.8. Their overall win rate stands at 50%, but a concerning trend has emerged in their last three matches, where they've lost all three, conceding an average of 2.3 goals. This recent dip in form, particularly their last outing where they failed to score, raises questions about their current momentum heading into this vital fixture.
Deportes Tolima Team recent
| Match date | H/A | VS | Score | Results | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | Cor 9.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HOME | Deportivo Pasto | 1 - 0 | - | ||||
HOME | Deportivo Cali | 1 - 1 | - | ||||
AWAY | Millonarios | 0 - 2 | - | ||||
HOME | Deportivo Pereira | 2 - 0 | - | ||||
AWAY | Deportivo Pasto | 0 - 1 | - | ||||
HOME | Santa Fe | 2 - 2 | - | ||||
HOME | Águilas Doradas | 4 - 1 | - | ||||
HOME | Jaguares | 3 - 1 | - | ||||
AWAY | Chico | 1 - 1 | - | ||||
HOME | Fortaleza FC | 2 - 0 | - |
Deportes Tolima boast a superior overall record, with only four losses in twenty games and a solid 45% win rate. Their home form is exceptional, averaging 1.8 goals and conceding only 0.6. However, their away form paints a different picture, with just one win in nine games and a negative goal difference. Despite this, their most recent match saw them secure a 1-0 victory, showcasing a return to defensive solidity after a three-game stretch that saw them score less than a goal per game on average.
Odds
Lineups
Deportivo Pasto
(4-2-3-1)
Deportes Tolima
(4-2-3-1)
