Nacional vs Guimaraes - AI Match Preview

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Portugal Primeira Liga

Nacional

Guimaraes

Preview Team statistics AI Prediction H2H Team recent Odds Lineups Injuries / suspensions League table

Preview

Nacional vs Guimaraes: Hosts Seek Home Advantage in Season Finale

Nacional hosts Guimaraes on the final matchday of the Primeira Liga season. While Nacional have shown an upturn in recent home form, Guimaraes have a poor away record this season, making this a fascinating clash of trends.

This fixture presents an interesting tactical battle. Nacional's recent home surge, marked by increased shot volume and higher possession numbers, suggests they will aim to play on the front foot. Guimaraes, despite their overall better season, have a porous away defence and have struggled to stem the tide in recent away matches. The visitors' tendency to hold possession could be nullified if Nacional can effectively transition and exploit Guimaraes' defensive vulnerabilities. Given Guimaraes' recent defensive frailties on the road, Nacional will look to capitalize on any defensive lapses.

Team statistics

Portugal Primeira Liga

Nacional

Guimaraes

Matches played

8 - 7 - 18

Results

12 - 6 - 15

24.2%

Win %

36.4%

1.1

Goals scored

1.2

1.4

Goals conceded

1.5

4.2

Shots on target

3.9

5.4

Shots off target

5.8

3.2

Blocked shots

3.5

46.4

Ball possession

51.1

75.9

Pass accuracy

81.7

14.7

Fouls

14.6

3.1

Goalkeeper saves

3.2

2.9

Yellow cards

2.3

0.2

Red cards

0.1

League averages

Key points

• Nacional have won 2 of their last 3 home games, scoring 1.3 goals per home game this season.
• Guimaraes have lost 10 of their 16 away league matches, conceding 1.9 goals per away game.
• The odds favour a Nacional win, with home_win_odds at 2.0.

AI Prediction

Nacional's impressive recent home form, coupled with Guimaraes' dismal away record, points towards a home victory. Guimaraes' strong possession stats are often undermined by their defensive frailties on the road, which Nacional should be able to exploit. Both teams have shown a propensity to concede, making Both Teams To Score a strong possibility, and the attacking intent from Nacional at home suggests we could see over 2.5 goals.

AI

Confidence

Pick

Recent Win% (20)
nova-lite-v1 (fr)

by amazon

70%

HOME

BTTS NO

2.5 UNDER

1x2

47%

O/U

63%

BTTS

47%
gemini-2.0-flash-lite-001 (ar)

by google

65%

HOME

BTTS YES

2.5 OVER

1x2

33%

O/U

77%

BTTS

60%
gemini-2.0-flash-lite-001 (es)

by google

68%

X DRAW

BTTS NO

2.5 UNDER

1x2

50%

O/U

73%

BTTS

63%
gemini-2.0-flash-lite-001 (ru)

by google

68%

HOME

BTTS YES

2.5 OVER

1x2

47%

O/U

60%

BTTS

60%
gemini-2.5-flash-lite (en)

by google

70%

HOME

BTTS YES

2.5 OVER

1x2

43%

O/U

67%

BTTS

57%
llama-3.1-8b-instruct (it)

by meta-llama

75%

HOME

BTTS NO

2.5 UNDER

1x2

43%

O/U

77%

BTTS

70%
llama-3.3-70b-instruct (pt)

by meta-llama

65%

HOME

BTTS YES

2.5 OVER

1x2

40%

O/U

70%

BTTS

67%
gpt-oss-120b:free (tr)

by openai

78%

HOME

BTTS YES

2.5 OVER

1x2

43%

O/U

63%

BTTS

57%
grok-4.1-fast (ja)

by x-ai

72%

HOME

BTTS YES

2.5 OVER

1x2

43%

O/U

63%

BTTS

67%
grok-4.1-fast (ko)

by x-ai

72%

HOME

BTTS YES

2.5 OVER

1x2

43%

O/U

70%

BTTS

73%

H2H

Primeira Liga

Match date	Team	Score	Team	O/U 2.5	BTTS
1/2/2026	Nacional	L 1 - 2 W	Guimaraes AWAY	O	Y
5/3/2025	HOME Nacional	L 1 - 2 W	Guimaraes	O	Y
12/23/2024	Nacional	D 2 - 2 D	Guimaraes AWAY	O	Y

Includes records from 2023 onwards.

Team recent

Nacional

H/A	VS	Score	Results	O/U 2.5	BTTS	Cor 9.5
AWAY	Santa Clara	0 - 2	L	U	N	Y
HOME	AVS	1 - 2	L	O	Y	Y
AWAY	Tondela	2 - 0	W	U	N	Y
HOME	Alverca	1 - 0	W	U	N	N
AWAY	Benfica	0 - 2	L	U	N	N
HOME	Estrela	2 - 0	W	U	N	Y
AWAY	Famalicao	0 - 1	L	U	N	Y
HOME	Estoril	0 - 1	L	U	N	Y
AWAY	Moreirense	1 - 1	D	U	Y	Y
HOME	SC Braga	1 - 2	L	O	Y	N

Nacional finish their league campaign with a home tie against Guimaraes. Overall, their season has been one of struggle, with a significant number of losses contributing to a low win percentage. However, recent home form offers a glimmer of hope, with two wins in their last three home fixtures, showcasing an improved offensive output during that spell. Their overall home scoring average is respectable, but their defence has conceded a similar amount, suggesting games involving Nacional are rarely one-sided.

Guimaraes

H/A	VS	Score	Results	O/U 2.5	BTTS	Cor 9.5
HOME	Casa Pia	0 - 1	L	U	N	Y
AWAY	Sporting CP	1 - 5	L	O	Y	Y
HOME	Rio Ave	2 - 0	W	U	N	N
AWAY	GIL Vicente	1 - 0	W	U	N	N
AWAY	AVS	1 - 1	D	U	Y	N
HOME	Tondela	5 - 0	W	O	N	N
AWAY	Benfica	0 - 3	L	O	N	Y
HOME	Famalicao	1 - 2	L	O	Y	N
AWAY	Santa Clara	0 - 2	L	U	N	N
HOME	Alverca	1 - 1	D	U	Y	N

Guimaraes have secured more wins than Nacional over the course of the season and possess a higher overall win percentage. Despite this, their away form is a significant concern, with a heavy loss record on the road this season, conceding almost two goals per away game on average. Their recent form has also seen a dip, with two losses in their last three matches, though they did manage a draw in their most recent away outing. They tend to dominate possession but struggle to convert that into consistent scoring away from home.

Over

Under

Yes

Odds

1x2

HOME

DRAW

3.4

AWAY

3.6

2.5 OVER/UNDER

OVER

1.75

UNDER

2.05

BTTS

YES

1.62

2.2

Lineups

Lineup information is currently unavailable. It will be updated 1 hour before kickoff.

Average Player Rating

Injuries / suspensions

No injury/suspension information available.

League table

Portugal Primeira Liga

#	Team	Played	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Porto	16	15	1	0	35	4	31	46	WWWWW
2	Sporting CP	16	13	2	1	46	8	38	41	WWWDW
3	Benfica	16	10	6	0	33	10	23	36	DWWDW
4	GIL Vicente	16	7	6	3	21	11	10	27	DDDDL
5	SC Braga	16	7	5	4	28	15	13	26	DLWWW
6	Famalicao	16	6	5	5	20	13	7	23	LLWLD
7	Guimaraes	16	6	4	6	16	21	-5	22	DLWDW
8	Moreirense	15	6	3	6	21	24	-3	21	DLDDL
9	Estoril	16	5	5	6	27	26	1	20	WWLDL
10	Estrela	16	4	6	6	20	24	-4	18	WDLWL
11	Rio Ave	16	3	8	5	19	28	-9	17	LDLWD
12	Alverca	16	5	2	9	16	27	-11	17	LLLWW
13	Santa Clara	15	4	4	7	11	15	-4	16	DLWDL
14	Nacional	15	4	4	7	17	21	-4	16	DWLLD
15	Casa Pia	16	3	5	8	16	29	-13	14	DWDLL
16	Arouca	16	3	5	8	17	39	-22	14	DDWLL
17	Tondela	15	2	3	10	9	27	-18	9	LLLWL
18	AVS	16	0	4	12	11	41	-30	4	LDLLL

Nacional vs Guimaraes AI Match Preview, Prediction, Team Stats Comparison, League table

Preview

Nacional vs Guimaraes: Hosts Seek Home Advantage in Season Finale

Team statistics

Team Stats Comparison

Key points

AI Prediction

H2H

Team recent

Nacional Team recent

Guimaraes Team recent

Odds

Injuries / suspensions

League table