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Guimaraes vs Estrela: Hosts Aim to Consolidate Home Advantage in Primeira Liga
Guimaraes host Estrela in a Primeira Liga clash where the home side's solid home record will be tested by an Estrela side desperate to improve their away form. While Guimaraes have been more consistent overall, Estrela's recent uptick in scoring away from home could make for an interesting encounter.
This fixture pits Guimaraes' generally stable home setup against Estrela's inconsistent away performances. Guimaraes will likely aim to leverage their superior home scoring record and higher shot volume to control the game. Expect them to try and build attacks, potentially through wider areas given their corner kick average, and exploit Estrela's weaker away defence which concedes heavily. Estrela, on the other hand, might adopt a more cautious approach initially, looking to hit on quick transitions given their recent improved scoring away from home, but their low possession numbers suggest they'll be largely reacting rather than dictating.
Team statistics
Team Stats Comparison
Key points
- • Guimaraes boasts a winning record at home, averaging 1.4 goals per game.
- • Estrela have lost 60% of their away matches this season.
- • Despite poor away form, Estrela have scored in their last three away games.
AI Prediction
Guimaraes' stronger overall and home form, coupled with their higher average goals scored, makes them the logical pick. While Estrela have shown some recent improvement away from home, their season-long away struggles and defensive record are significant concerns. The odds also favour the hosts. Given both teams have shown capability to score recently, BTTS is a reasonable shout, but Guimaraes' home advantage should see them edge it.
- AIConfidencePickRecent Win% (20)
nova-lite-v1 (fr)by amazon70% HOMEBTTS YES2.5 OVER1x240%O/U47%BTTS57%
gemini-2.0-flash-lite-001 (ar)by google68% HOMEBTTS NO2.5 UNDER1x247%O/U60%BTTS57%- gemini-2.0-flash-lite-001 (es)by google70% HOMEBTTS NO2.5 UNDER1x243%O/U63%BTTS53%
H2H
Team recent
Guimaraes Team recent
| Match date | H/A | VS | Score | Results | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | Cor 9.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AWAY | Arouca | 2 - 3 | |||||
HOME | Moreirense | 1 - 0 | |||||
AWAY | Estoril | 2 - 4 | |||||
HOME | FC Porto | 0 - 1 | |||||
HOME | Nacional | 2 - 1 | |||||
AWAY | Casa Pia | 0 - 0 | |||||
HOME | Sporting CP | 1 - 4 | |||||
AWAY | Rio Ave | 1 - 0 | |||||
HOME | GIL Vicente | 0 - 0 | |||||
HOME | AVS | 4 - 0 |
Guimaraes have established a decent base this season, securing more wins than losses overall. Their home form is particularly noteworthy, with over half of their victories coming at home, where they average a respectable 1.4 goals per game. While their recent overall form has seen a dip with two losses in three, they managed a crucial home win in their last outing, showing they can still secure points in familiar surroundings. Their possession stats are fairly even, but they tend to create more shots on goal at home.
Estrela Team recent
| Match date | H/A | VS | Score | Results | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | Cor 9.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HOME | Santa Clara | 1 - 0 | |||||
AWAY | Alverca | 1 - 1 | |||||
AWAY | Benfica | 0 - 4 | |||||
HOME | Estoril | 0 - 5 | |||||
HOME | SC Braga | 3 - 3 | |||||
AWAY | Famalicao | 3 - 2 | |||||
HOME | Moreirense | 0 - 0 | |||||
AWAY | FC Porto | 1 - 3 | |||||
HOME | Arouca | 3 - 1 | |||||
AWAY | Sporting CP | 0 - 4 |
Estrela find themselves in a more precarious position, with an equal number of wins, draws, and losses across the season. Their away record is concerning, having lost 60% of their road fixtures and conceding significantly more goals than they score. However, recent away form shows a slight spark, with a draw and a win in their last three away matches, scoring 1.3 goals in each of those. This suggests they might be finding a way to be more effective on the road, even if their overall attacking output remains lower than the hosts'.
Odds
Lineups
Guimaraes
(4-2-3-1)
Estrela
(4-1-4-1)