Arouca vs Tondela - AI Match Preview

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Portugal Primeira Liga

Arouca

Tondela

Preview Team statistics AI Prediction H2H Team recent Odds Lineups Injuries / suspensions League table

Preview

Arouca vs Tondela: Hosts Aim to Finish Strong on Final Day

In the final matchday of the Primeira Liga, Arouca hosts Tondela in a fixture that sees the home side looking to solidify their season with a win. While Tondela have shown recent resilience, Arouca's improved home form in their last three games suggests they have the edge.

This match presents a clear contrast in recent fortunes. Arouca's home form suggests a side playing with confidence, likely to try and set the rhythm of the game through their slightly higher average possession metrics. They'll aim to exploit Tondela's defensive record, which has seen them concede heavily on the road. Tondela, buoyed by a recent upturn, might look to play on the counter, particularly in the initial stages, hoping to catch Arouca cold, but their overall lack of attacking threat away from home is a major concern.

Team statistics

Portugal Primeira Liga

Arouca

Tondela

Matches played

11 - 6 - 16

Results

6 - 10 - 17

33.3%

Win %

18.2%

1.3

Goals scored

0.8

1.9

Goals conceded

1.6

3.5

Shots on target

3.4

4.6

Shots off target

4.6

2.4

Blocked shots

2.5

50.1

Ball possession

43.5

81.9

Pass accuracy

78.2

13.8

Fouls

14.5

2.7

Goalkeeper saves

3.5

2.8

Yellow cards

2.7

0.3

Red cards

0.1

League averages

Key points

• Arouca have won 2 of their last 3 home games, scoring 2 goals per match in that period.
• Tondela have lost 9 of their 16 away games this season, conceding 1.9 goals per game on average.
• Tondela's overall goal average for the season stands at a mere 0.8 per game.

AI Prediction

Arouca's strong recent home form, coupled with Tondela's poor away record and season-long defensive issues, points towards a home victory. While Tondela's last few results have been better, their overall away struggles and low scoring rate are hard to overlook. The odds also slightly favour the visitors, but Arouca's home momentum feels more significant.

AI

Confidence

Pick

Recent Win% (20)
nova-lite-v1 (fr)

by amazon

78%

HOME

BTTS YES

2.5 OVER

1x2

47%

O/U

60%

BTTS

47%
gemini-2.0-flash-lite-001 (ar)

by google

65%

HOME

BTTS YES

2.5 OVER

1x2

37%

O/U

73%

BTTS

57%
gemini-2.0-flash-lite-001 (es)

by google

68%

HOME

BTTS YES

2.5 OVER

1x2

50%

O/U

70%

BTTS

60%
gemini-2.0-flash-lite-001 (ru)

by google

68%

HOME

BTTS NO

2.5 UNDER

1x2

47%

O/U

60%

BTTS

60%
gemini-2.5-flash-lite (en)

by google

68%

HOME

BTTS YES

2.5 OVER

1x2

40%

O/U

63%

BTTS

57%
llama-3.1-8b-instruct (it)

by meta-llama

75%

AWAY

BTTS YES

2.5 OVER

1x2

43%

O/U

77%

BTTS

67%
llama-3.3-70b-instruct (pt)

by meta-llama

65%

HOME

BTTS YES

2.5 OVER

1x2

43%

O/U

67%

BTTS

63%
gpt-oss-120b:free (tr)

by openai

78%

HOME

BTTS YES

2.5 OVER

1x2

47%

O/U

60%

BTTS

53%
grok-4.1-fast (ja)

by x-ai

68%

AWAY

BTTS YES

2.5 UNDER

1x2

43%

O/U

63%

BTTS

63%
grok-4.1-fast (ko)

by x-ai

68%

HOME

BTTS YES

2.5 OVER

1x2

43%

O/U

67%

BTTS

70%

H2H

Primeira Liga

Match date	Team	Score	Team	O/U 2.5	BTTS
1/3/2026	Arouca	L 1 - 3 W	Tondela AWAY	O	Y

Includes records from 2023 onwards.

Team recent

Arouca

H/A	VS	Score	Results	O/U 2.5	BTTS	Cor 9.5
AWAY	GIL Vicente	3 - 1	W	O	Y	N
HOME	Santa Clara	2 - 2	D	O	Y	Y
AWAY	Alverca	1 - 2	L	O	Y	N
HOME	Estrela	1 - 0	W	U	N	N
AWAY	SC Braga	0 - 1	L	U	N	Y
HOME	Estoril	3 - 2	W	O	Y	N
AWAY	Moreirense	1 - 0	W	U	N	Y
HOME	Benfica	1 - 2	L	O	Y	N
AWAY	Famalicao	0 - 1	L	U	N	N
AWAY	FC Porto	1 - 3	L	O	Y	N

Arouca have had a season of two halves, finishing with a respectable, if not spectacular, record. Their overall campaign saw them score 1.3 goals per game and concede 1.9, highlighting defensive frailties. However, their recent home form has been a significant positive, with two wins and a draw in their last three at home, seeing them bag 2 goals per match in that spell. This suggests they've built some momentum at home as the season draws to a close.

Tondela

H/A	VS	Score	Results	O/U 2.5	BTTS	Cor 9.5
HOME	Moreirense	2 - 0	W	U	N	N
AWAY	Casa Pia	1 - 0	W	U	N	N
AWAY	Sporting CP	2 - 2	D	O	Y	Y
HOME	Nacional	0 - 2	L	U	N	Y
AWAY	FC Porto	0 - 2	L	U	N	N
HOME	GIL Vicente	2 - 2	D	O	Y	Y
AWAY	Guimaraes	0 - 5	L	O	N	N
HOME	AVS	0 - 0	D	U	N	Y
HOME	Rio Ave	0 - 1	L	U	N	N
HOME	Santa Clara	2 - 2	D	O	Y	N

Tondela's season has been a struggle, marked by a high number of losses, particularly away from home where they've lost 9 of 16 games. Their overall scoring record is poor, averaging just 0.8 goals per game, and they've conceded nearly two goals on average throughout the season. Despite this, their last three games overall have been encouraging, with two wins and a draw, and they managed to keep a clean sheet in their most recent outing.

Over

Under

Yes

Odds

1x2

HOME

DRAW

3.4

AWAY

2.2

2.5 OVER/UNDER

OVER

1.85

UNDER

1.95

BTTS

YES

1.7

2.05

Lineups

Lineup information is currently unavailable. It will be updated 1 hour before kickoff.

Average Player Rating

Injuries / suspensions

No injury/suspension information available.

League table

Portugal Primeira Liga

#	Team	Played	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Porto	16	15	1	0	35	4	31	46	WWWWW
2	Sporting CP	16	13	2	1	46	8	38	41	WWWDW
3	Benfica	16	10	6	0	33	10	23	36	DWWDW
4	GIL Vicente	16	7	6	3	21	11	10	27	DDDDL
5	SC Braga	16	7	5	4	28	15	13	26	DLWWW
6	Famalicao	16	6	5	5	20	13	7	23	LLWLD
7	Guimaraes	16	6	4	6	16	21	-5	22	DLWDW
8	Moreirense	15	6	3	6	21	24	-3	21	DLDDL
9	Estoril	16	5	5	6	27	26	1	20	WWLDL
10	Estrela	16	4	6	6	20	24	-4	18	WDLWL
11	Rio Ave	16	3	8	5	19	28	-9	17	LDLWD
12	Alverca	16	5	2	9	16	27	-11	17	LLLWW
13	Santa Clara	15	4	4	7	11	15	-4	16	DLWDL
14	Nacional	15	4	4	7	17	21	-4	16	DWLLD
15	Casa Pia	16	3	5	8	16	29	-13	14	DWDLL
16	Arouca	16	3	5	8	17	39	-22	14	DDWLL
17	Tondela	15	2	3	10	9	27	-18	9	LLLWL
18	AVS	16	0	4	12	11	41	-30	4	LDLLL

Arouca vs Tondela AI Match Preview, Prediction, Team Stats Comparison, League table

Preview

Arouca vs Tondela: Hosts Aim to Finish Strong on Final Day

Team statistics

Team Stats Comparison

Key points

AI Prediction

H2H

Team recent

Arouca Team recent

Tondela Team recent

Odds

Injuries / suspensions

League table