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Toluca vs CF Pachuca: Clausura Quarter-Final Clash at the Nemesio Díez
Toluca host CF Pachuca in a Liga MX Clausura quarter-final tie, with the home side boasting a formidable season record and strong home form. Pachuca, however, have shown flashes of attacking prowess on the road and will be looking to cause an upset.
Toluca's typical possession-based approach, averaging over 56% ball retention, is likely to be tested by Pachuca's more direct style, especially given Pachuca's reduced possession numbers away from home. The home side will aim to leverage their superior attacking statistics and home advantage to set a high tempo early on. Pachuca's recent struggles to hold onto the ball and their defensive frailties in their last outing might invite Toluca to press high, looking to exploit any defensive lapses through quick transitions.
Team statistics
Team Stats Comparison
Key points
- • Toluca averages 2.4 goals per game at home this season.
- • CF Pachuca has a 33.3% win rate on the road this season.
- • Both teams have shown a tendency for goals in their recent fixtures, with Toluca scoring 4 and Pachuca scoring 3 in their respective last matches.
AI Prediction
Toluca's overall season and home form are significantly stronger than Pachuca's away record, making them the clear favourites. Despite Pachuca's struggles, they have shown they can score on the road, and Toluca's recent defensive lapse, combined with their own high-scoring habits, points towards goals at both ends. The odds also reflect Toluca as favourites, aligning with the statistical picture.
- AIConfidencePickRecent Win% (20)
nova-lite-v1 (fr)by amazon85% HOMEBTTS NO2.5 UNDER1x250%O/U67%BTTS63%
deepseek-v3.2 (id)by deepseek75% HOMEBTTS YES2.5 OVER1x250%O/U60%BTTS53%
gemini-2.0-flash-lite-001 (ar)by google68% HOMEBTTS YES2.5 OVER1x247%O/U47%BTTS70%
H2H
Team recent
Toluca Team recent
| Match date | H/A | VS | Score | Results | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | Cor 9.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HOME | Leon | 4 - 1 | |||||
AWAY | Mazatlán | 3 - 4 | |||||
AWAY | Club America | 1 - 2 | |||||
HOME | Atletico San Luis | 1 - 1 | |||||
AWAY | Club Queretaro | 0 - 1 | |||||
AWAY | CF Pachuca | 1 - 1 | |||||
HOME | Atlas | 1 - 1 | |||||
HOME | FC Juarez | 3 - 1 | |||||
AWAY | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 3 - 2 | |||||
HOME | Guadalajara Chivas | 2 - 0 |
Toluca have enjoyed a dominant season overall, averaging two goals per game and conceding just one, reflecting a solid all-around performance. Their home record is particularly impressive, with 65% of matches ending in victory and an average of 2.4 goals scored. Even in their last three games, they've maintained a strong offensive output at home, drawing two and winning one. However, their most recent outing saw a surprising dip in possession and a high number of cards, suggesting a potential for ill-discipline.
CF Pachuca Team recent
| Match date | H/A | VS | Score | Results | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | Cor 9.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HOME | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 0 - 2 | |||||
AWAY | Club Tijuana | 1 - 3 | |||||
AWAY | Monterrey | 3 - 1 | |||||
HOME | Santos Laguna | 4 - 2 | |||||
AWAY | Cruz Azul | 2 - 1 | |||||
HOME | Toluca | 1 - 1 | |||||
AWAY | Atletico San Luis | 1 - 1 | |||||
HOME | Puebla | 2 - 1 | |||||
HOME | Necaxa | 2 - 1 | |||||
AWAY | Mazatlán | 0 - 1 |
CF Pachuca presents a more balanced, albeit less convincing, season profile, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.2 per game. Their away form has been their biggest challenge, with an equal split of wins, draws, and losses. While their recent form has been poor, losing their last two away fixtures, they did secure two wins in their last three away matches overall. Their last outing was a tough loss, conceding four goals, but they still managed to create chances, hinting at a potential for goals.
Odds
Lineups
Toluca
(4-2-3-1)
CF Pachuca
(4-2-3-1)