Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby - AI Match Preview

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England Championship

Sheffield Wednesday

Derby

Match Events

32'

Patrick Agyemang

Dominic Iorfa

56'

Patrick Agyemang

57'

Liam Thompson

62'

Patrick Agyemang

Max Lowe

79'

Charlie McNeill

84'

Harry Amass

87'

Preview

Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby: Home Struggles Meet Improving Derby in Championship Clash

Sheffield Wednesday host Derby in a Championship fixture that pits the Owls' abysmal home record against Derby's recent upturn in form. Both sides have shown defensive frailties, suggesting potential for goals, though the visitors appear to have the statistical edge.

This fixture presents a classic clash of desperate home form against improving away performance. Wednesday, despite their possession advantage at home, are clearly struggling to convert chances and are exceptionally vulnerable defensively. Derby, while less dominant in possession, particularly away from home, have shown a greater ability to find the net and have a more resilient defence on the road. The Owls will likely try to leverage their slightly higher ball possession to create chances, but their historical inability to defend their own turf, coupled with Derby's recent away successes, suggests the visitors might exploit spaces left by a team that has lost 80% of its home games.

Team statistics

England Championship

Sheffield Wednesday

Derby

Matches played

1 - 6 - 12

Results

7 - 6 - 7

5.3%

Win %

35%

0.8

Goals scored

1.4

1.9

Goals conceded

1.5

3.4

Shots on target

4.3

Shots off target

3.5

Blocked shots

2.9

46.9

Ball possession

41.7

Pass accuracy

71.9

11.4

Fouls

12.2

4.2

Goalkeeper saves

3.1

1.6

Yellow cards

2.5

0.1

Red cards

League averages

Key points

• Sheffield Wednesday have won 0% of their home games this season.
• Derby have won 44.4% of their away matches.
• Sheffield Wednesday concede an average of 2.4 goals at home this season.

AI Prediction

The stark contrast in home and away form is the defining factor here. Sheffield Wednesday's winless home record, conceding nearly two and a half goals per home game, is unsustainable. Derby's away form, where they win nearly half their matches and score more than they concede, offers a much more positive outlook. The odds favor Derby slightly, aligning with this statistical disparity. Given both teams' defensive records, a 'both teams to score' outcome and an 'over 2.5 goals' seems probable.

AI

Confidence

Pick

Recent Win% (20)
nova-lite-v1 (fr)

by amazon

70%

AWAY

BTTS YES

2.5 OVER

1x2

63%

O/U

50%

BTTS

63%
gemini-2.0-flash-lite-001 (ar)

by google

65%

X DRAW

BTTS YES

2.5 UNDER

1x2

57%

O/U

57%

BTTS

53%
gemini-2.0-flash-lite-001 (es)

by google

68%

AWAY

BTTS NO

2.5 UNDER

1x2

63%

O/U

60%

BTTS

63%

H2H

Championship

Match date	Team	Score	Team	O/U 2.5	BTTS
1/1/2025	HOME Sheffield Wednesday	W 4 - 2 L	Derby	O	Y
12/1/2024	Sheffield Wednesday	W 2 - 1 L	Derby AWAY	O	Y

Includes records from 2023 onwards.

Team recent

Sheffield Wednesday

H/A	VS	Score	Results	O/U 2.5	BTTS	Cor 9.5
AWAY	Watford	1 - 1	D	U	Y	N
HOME	Preston	2 - 3	L	O	Y	N
AWAY	Millwall	0 - 1	L	U	N	Y
HOME	Sheffield Utd	0 - 3	L	O	N	N
AWAY	Southampton	1 - 3	L	O	Y	Y
HOME	Norwich	1 - 1	D	U	Y	Y
AWAY	West Brom	0 - 0	D	U	N	N
HOME	Oxford United	1 - 2	L	O	Y	Y
HOME	Middlesbrough	0 - 1	L	U	N	Y
AWAY	Charlton	1 - 2	L	O	Y	N

Sheffield Wednesday are in a dire run of form, particularly at home. Across 10 home fixtures this season, they've failed to secure a single victory, managing only two draws while suffering eight defeats. Their home scoring record is particularly concerning, averaging just 0.5 goals per game, and they concede a staggering 2.4. While their possession stats are respectable at home, translating that dominance into tangible results has been impossible, with their recent home form in the last three matches showing a similar pattern of conceding heavily.

Derby

H/A	VS	Score	Results	O/U 2.5	BTTS	Cor 9.5
HOME	Millwall	1 - 1	D	U	Y	Y
HOME	Leicester	1 - 3	L	O	Y	Y
AWAY	Middlesbrough	1 - 2	L	O	Y	Y
AWAY	Swansea	2 - 1	W	O	Y	N
HOME	Watford	2 - 3	L	O	Y	Y
AWAY	Blackburn	2 - 1	W	O	Y	N
HOME	Hull City	2 - 1	W	O	Y	Y
AWAY	Sheffield Utd	3 - 1	W	O	Y	N
HOME	QPR	1 - 0	W	U	N	Y
HOME	Norwich	1 - 0	W	U	N	Y

Derby, on the other hand, have been showing signs of life, especially away from home. Despite a modest overall scoring record of 1.4 goals per game, their away form is statistically stronger, with four wins in nine matches and a positive goal difference. Recent form also indicates an upward trend; their last three away games saw them win two, scoring 1.7 goals per game, though they did concede 1.3. Their last outing was a draw, but the underlying stats from that match indicate a struggle in possession and reduced attacking output.

Over

Under

Yes

Odds

1x2

HOME

3.8

DRAW

3.25

AWAY

2.05

2.5 OVER/UNDER

OVER

2.2

UNDER

1.67

BTTS

YES

1.83

Lineups