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Hoffenheim vs Hamburg: Hosts Aim to Capitalize on Away Struggles in Bundesliga
Round 14 of the Bundesliga sees 1899 Hoffenheim host Hamburger SV. The home side, buoyed by a strong recent home run, will look to exploit Hamburg's significant away-day frailties, aiming to secure valuable points in what is expected to be a moderately scoring encounter.
This fixture pits Hoffenheim's potent home attack against Hamburg's defensive struggles away from home. Expect Hoffenheim to try and set the rhythm of the game, leveraging their higher average of shots and possession to probe Hamburg's backline. Hamburg, who have shown more attacking intent in their last outing, might attempt quick transitions, but their historical difficulty in breaking down opponents on the road suggests they could be largely penned back. The home side's recent success in efficiently converting chances, coupled with Hamburg's susceptibility to conceding, points towards an encounter where the hosts will aim to assert control.
Team statistics
Team Stats Comparison
Key points
- • 1899 Hoffenheim have won their last three home matches, scoring an average of 3 goals per game.
- • Hamburger SV have failed to win any of their last six away games, scoring only 0.3 goals per game on average.
- • The odds favour Hoffenheim at 1.73, reflecting their stronger form and home advantage.
AI Prediction
Hoffenheim's imperious recent home form, coupled with Hamburg's abysmal away record, makes the hosts the clear favourites. The odds align with this, positioning Hoffenheim as strong contenders. Given both teams' recent scoring patterns and the implied goal-scoring potential, an 'over' bet on total goals and 'yes' for both teams to score presents compelling value.
- AIConfidencePickRecent Win% (20)
nova-lite-v1 (fr)by amazon85%
HOMEBTTS YES2.5 OVER1x240%O/U50%BTTS47%
gemini-2.0-flash-lite-001 (ar)by google70%
HOMEBTTS YES2.5 OVER1x250%O/U60%BTTS50%
gemini-2.0-flash-lite-001 (es)by google70%
HOMEBTTS YES2.5 OVER1x250%O/U57%BTTS60%
gemini-2.0-flash-lite-001 (ru)by google70%
HOMEBTTS YES2.5 OVER1x250%O/U60%BTTS53%
gemini-2.0-flash-lite-001 (vi)by google72%
HOMEBTTS YES2.5 OVER1x257%O/U53%BTTS37%
gemini-2.5-flash-lite (en)by google85%
HOMEBTTS YES2.5 OVER1x257%O/U60%BTTS60%
llama-3.1-8b-instruct (it)by meta-llama75%
HOMEBTTS NO2.5 UNDER1x240%O/U57%BTTS47%
llama-3.1-8b-instruct (nl)by meta-llama75%
HOMEBTTS YES2.5 UNDER1x250%O/U43%BTTS47%
llama-3.3-70b-instruct (pt)by meta-llama70%
HOMEBTTS YES2.5 OVER1x250%O/U53%BTTS50%
phi-4-multimodal-instruct (id)by microsoft85%
HOMEBTTS YES2.5 OVER1x250%O/U43%BTTS40%
mistral-nemo (de)by mistralai85%
HOMEBTTS NO2.5 UNDER1x257%O/U47%BTTS30%
gpt-oss-120b:exacto (tr)by openai78%
HOMEBTTS NO2.5 OVER1x247%O/U50%BTTS57%
qwen-turbo (th)by qwen85%
HOMEBTTS YES2.5 OVER1x247%O/U50%BTTS43%
grok-4.1-fast (ja)by x-ai78%
HOMEBTTS NO2.5 UNDER1x257%O/U77%BTTS70%
grok-4.1-fast (ko)by x-ai82%
HOMEBTTS NO2.5 OVER1x250%O/U67%BTTS67%
H2H
Team recent
1899 Hoffenheim Team recent
| Match date | H/A | VS | Score | Results | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | Cor 9.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AWAY | Borussia Dortmund | 0 - 2 | |||||
HOME | FC Augsburg | 3 - 0 | |||||
AWAY | FSV Mainz 05 | 1 - 1 | |||||
HOME | RB Leipzig | 3 - 1 | |||||
AWAY | VfL Wolfsburg | 3 - 2 | |||||
HOME | 1. FC Heidenheim | 3 - 1 | |||||
AWAY | FC St. Pauli | 3 - 0 | |||||
HOME | 1. FC Köln | 0 - 1 | |||||
AWAY | SC Freiburg | 1 - 1 | |||||
HOME | Bayern München | 1 - 4 |
1899 Hoffenheim have been a formidable force at home this season, showcasing an impressive scoring record of 1.8 goals per game. Their recent form at their own ground is particularly striking, having won their last three home fixtures with a dominant average of three goals scored and conceding less than one. This upturn in fortunes, which contrasts with an otherwise mixed season overall, suggests they are building significant momentum and will be confident of continuing their positive trend here.
Hamburger SV Team recent
| Match date | H/A | VS | Score | Results | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | Cor 9.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HOME | Werder Bremen | 3 - 2 | |||||
HOME | VfB Stuttgart | 2 - 1 | |||||
AWAY | FC Augsburg | 0 - 1 | |||||
HOME | Borussia Dortmund | 1 - 1 | |||||
AWAY | 1. FC Köln | 1 - 4 | |||||
HOME | VfL Wolfsburg | 0 - 1 | |||||
AWAY | RB Leipzig | 1 - 2 | |||||
HOME | FSV Mainz 05 | 4 - 0 | |||||
AWAY | Union Berlin | 0 - 0 | |||||
HOME | 1. FC Heidenheim | 2 - 1 |
Hamburger SV present a starkly different picture, especially on the road. Their away record is concerning, with no wins in six attempts and a meagre return of just 0.3 goals per game, while conceding a worrying 2 goals on average. Despite a recent overall improvement in form, winning two of their last three, their last outing saw them fail to score and concede twice, a pattern that has plagued their away performances throughout the season.
Odds
1899 Hoffenheim
(4-4-2)
Hamburger SV
(3-4-3)
Injuries / suspensions
1899 Hoffenheim Injuries / suspensions
Hamburger SV Injuries / suspensions
