Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix - AI Match Preview

Special Event

Share on X to get a 7-day premium benefit!

Claim Benefit

Australia A-League

Melbourne Victory

Wellington Phoenix

Preview Team statistics AI Prediction H2H Team recent Odds Lineups Injuries / suspensions League table

Match Events

Denis Genreau

34'

Nishan Velupillay

54'

76'

Alex Rufer

89'

Sander Erik Kartum

Preview

Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix: Hosts Aim to Consolidate Home Advantage in A-League

Melbourne Victory host Wellington Phoenix in a crucial A-League fixture. The home side, boasting a strong offensive record, will look to extend their impressive form against a Wellington Phoenix outfit that has shown resilience in recent away games.

Melbourne Victory are likely to set the tempo from the outset, leveraging their superior attacking statistics and home advantage. They will aim to tilt the flow of play their way through patient build-up and quick transitions, exploiting the wide areas with their high shot volume. Wellington Phoenix, conversely, may adopt a more compact defensive shape, looking to frustrate the hosts and strike on the counter. Their recent away form suggests they can weather early storms and potentially exploit any defensive lapses from Victory, particularly if they can win the battle for second balls in midfield.

Team statistics

Australia A-League

Melbourne Victory

Wellington Phoenix

Matches played

10 - 5 - 7

Results

7 - 6 - 9

45.5%

Win %

31.8%

1.7

Goals scored

1.5

1.3

Goals conceded

1.9

5.9

Shots on target

7.2

Shots off target

4.5

4.8

Blocked shots

3.3

Ball possession

49.6

78.6

Pass accuracy

77.5

9.3

Fouls

9.5

2.4

Goalkeeper saves

1.7

Yellow cards

1.4

Red cards

0.1

League averages

Key points

• Melbourne Victory average 2.2 goals per home game this season.
• Wellington Phoenix have not lost in their last three away matches.
• Melbourne Victory recorded 34 shots in their most recent fixture.

AI Prediction

Melbourne Victory's dominant home record and explosive recent form, particularly their massive shot count in the last match, make them clear favourites. Wellington Phoenix's recent away resilience is noted, but their overall defensive record and lower possession stats suggest they will struggle to contain Victory's potent attack. The odds also heavily favour the hosts, aligning with the statistical picture of an attacking home side poised for victory.

AI

Confidence

Pick

Recent Win% (20)
nova-lite-v1 (fr)

by amazon

85%

HOME

BTTS YES

2.5 OVER

1x2

37%

O/U

73%

BTTS

43%
gemini-2.0-flash-lite-001 (ar)

by google

75%

HOME

BTTS YES

2.5 OVER

1x2

33%

O/U

70%

BTTS

50%
gemini-2.0-flash-lite-001 (es)

by google

70%

HOME

BTTS YES

2.5 OVER

1x2

50%

O/U

63%

BTTS

60%
gemini-2.0-flash-lite-001 (ru)

by google

70%

HOME

BTTS YES

2.5 OVER

1x2

43%

O/U

67%

BTTS

47%
gemini-2.0-flash-lite-001 (vi)

by google

72%

HOME

BTTS YES

2.5 OVER

1x2

40%

O/U

73%

BTTS

63%
gemini-2.5-flash-lite (en)

by google

85%

HOME

BTTS YES

2.5 OVER

1x2

40%

O/U

70%

BTTS

57%
llama-3.1-8b-instruct (it)

by meta-llama

80%

HOME

BTTS YES

2.5 OVER

1x2

43%

O/U

60%

BTTS

60%
llama-3.1-8b-instruct (nl)

by meta-llama

82%

HOME

BTTS YES

2.5 OVER

1x2

47%

O/U

57%

BTTS

47%
llama-3.3-70b-instruct (pt)

by meta-llama

80%

HOME

BTTS YES

2.5 OVER

1x2

40%

O/U

67%

BTTS

60%
mistral-nemo (de)

by mistralai

85%

HOME

BTTS YES

2.5 OVER

1x2

50%

O/U

53%

BTTS

37%
gpt-oss-120b:exacto (tr)

by openai

78%

HOME

BTTS YES

2.5 OVER

1x2

47%

O/U

67%

BTTS

60%
qwen-turbo (th)

by qwen

88%

HOME

BTTS YES

2.5 OVER

1x2

43%

O/U

70%

BTTS

57%
grok-4.1-fast (ja)

by x-ai

82%

HOME

BTTS YES

2.5 OVER

1x2

43%

O/U

67%

BTTS

57%
grok-4.1-fast (ko)

by x-ai

82%

HOME

BTTS YES

2.5 OVER

1x2

47%

O/U

70%

BTTS

57%
mimo-v2-flash (id)

by xiaomi

85%

HOME

BTTS YES

2.5 OVER

1x2

37%

O/U

70%

BTTS

60%

H2H

A-League

Match date	Team	Score	Team	O/U 2.5	BTTS
2/6/2026	Melbourne Victory	W 3 - 2 L	Wellington Phoenix AWAY	O	Y
12/29/2025	HOME Melbourne Victory	W 5 - 1 L	Wellington Phoenix	O	Y
4/12/2025	Melbourne Victory	W 3 - 2 L	Wellington Phoenix AWAY	O	Y
2/14/2025	HOME Melbourne Victory	W 1 - 0 L	Wellington Phoenix	U	N
11/24/2024	Melbourne Victory	L 0 - 1 W	Wellington Phoenix AWAY	U	N
5/18/2024	Melbourne Victory	D 1 - 1 D	Wellington Phoenix AWAY	U	Y
5/12/2024	HOME Melbourne Victory	D 0 - 0 D	Wellington Phoenix	U	N
4/12/2024	Melbourne Victory	L 0 - 1 W	Wellington Phoenix AWAY	U	N
1/19/2024	Melbourne Victory	D 1 - 1 D	Wellington Phoenix AWAY	U	Y
11/10/2023	HOME Melbourne Victory	D 1 - 1 D	Wellington Phoenix	U	Y

Includes records from 2023 onwards.

Team recent

Melbourne Victory

H/A	VS	Score	Results	O/U 2.5	BTTS	Cor 9.5
HOME	Central Coast Mariners	4 - 1	W	O	Y	Y
HOME	Macarthur	4 - 1	W	O	Y	N
AWAY	Sydney	2 - 2	D	O	Y	Y
HOME	Adelaide United	1 - 1	D	U	Y	N
AWAY	Melbourne City	3 - 1	W	O	Y	Y
HOME	Brisbane Roar	1 - 1	D	U	Y	Y
AWAY	Wellington Phoenix	3 - 2	W	O	Y	Y
AWAY	Central Coast Mariners	0 - 1	L	U	N	Y
HOME	Sydney	4 - 0	W	O	N	Y
AWAY	Adelaide United	1 - 2	L	O	Y	N

Melbourne Victory have been a formidable force at home this season, averaging over two goals per game and securing a strong win percentage. Their overall season statistics highlight an attacking prowess, with a high volume of shots and good passing accuracy. Recent form has been explosive, evident in a spectacular 4-1 victory in their last outing, which saw them generate a remarkable 34 shots. This suggests they are hitting a rich vein of form and will be confident in their ability to break down opponents at home.

Wellington Phoenix

H/A	VS	Score	Results	O/U 2.5	BTTS	Cor 9.5
AWAY	Brisbane Roar	2 - 1	W	O	Y	Y
HOME	Perth Glory	2 - 0	W	U	N	Y
AWAY	Adelaide United	1 - 1	D	U	Y	Y
HOME	Sydney	0 - 1	L	U	N	Y
HOME	Auckland	0 - 5	L	O	N	Y
AWAY	Western Sydney Wanderers	2 - 2	D	O	Y	N
HOME	Melbourne Victory	2 - 3	L	O	Y	Y
HOME	Melbourne City	2 - 2	D	O	Y	N
AWAY	Newcastle Jets	1 - 4	L	O	Y	N
AWAY	Sydney	2 - 0	W	U	N	N

Wellington Phoenix present an interesting case. While their overall season record shows a tendency to concede more goals than they score, their recent away form has been surprisingly solid, with an unbeaten run of three away matches in their last four. They've managed to grind out results, often with a lower possession share but a decent recent scoring rate. Their last away game was a 2-2 draw, showing they can find the net even when not dominating play, and their goalkeeper has been busy, making an average of over four saves in recent away fixtures.

Over

Under

Yes

Odds

1x2

HOME

1.45

DRAW

AWAY

2.5 OVER/UNDER

OVER

1.53

UNDER

2.38

BTTS

YES

1.62

2.2

Lineups