Fatih Karagümrük vs Kocaelispor AI Prediction & AI Prediction | Süper Lig

Karagümrük vs Kocaelispor: Hosts Seek Home Respite Amidst Defensive Woes

Fatih Karagümrük, struggling for wins at home and conceding heavily, host Kocaelispor who boast a strong home record but falter on the road. This Süper Lig clash sees two teams with contrasting recent fortunes but similar overall defensive vulnerabilities.

Fatih Karagümrük have endured a torrid season, with their overall record showing a heavy reliance on away form, which isn't even a strong suit. Their home form is particularly concerning, with a mere single win from eight games, conceding nearly two goals per home outing. Recent form offers little respite, having failed to win in their last three, and their last home game saw them concede twice despite a surprising uptick in possession. The last match was a dismal 3-0 defeat on the road, highlighting persistent defensive frailties, with zero shots on goal from limited possession.

Kocaelispor present a curious case. While their overall away record mirrors their home struggles, with only one win and a concerning 1.7 goals conceded per game, their recent away form has seen a slight improvement, drawing their last away fixture and scoring in two of their last three away matches. However, their last outing was a goalless draw at home, a stark contrast to their recent trend of conceding on the road. Despite possessing a decent scoring average overall, their away goal threat has diminished, averaging under a goal per away game this season.

This fixture pits Karagümrük's defensive fragility against Kocaelispor's inconsistent away performance. Karagümrük's tendency to concede at home, coupled with their lack of attacking bite, suggests they may adopt a deeper defensive posture to try and stem the tide. However, Kocaelispor's own away struggles, particularly their low scoring rate, means they might struggle to break down even a struggling defence. The midfield battle could be crucial, with Kocaelispor’s higher possession average in recent games potentially allowing them to dictate play, but their ability to convert that into genuine chances away from home remains questionable.

Despite Karagümrük's dire overall form and particularly poor home record, Kocaelispor's away record is equally dismal, with a high concession rate. The odds suggest a competitive match, with slight favouritism towards the away side, but Karagümrük's recent home uptick in scoring, albeit still losing, combined with Kocaelispor’s recent away goals conceded, points towards both teams finding the net. Given the defensive records, an over 2.5 goals outcome feels likely, and the hosts might just edge it at home if they can tighten up slightly.

Key points

• Karagümrük have won only one of their last eight home games, conceding 1.9 goals per match.
• Kocaelispor have a poor away record, losing five of their last seven away fixtures.
• Both teams have conceded an average of over 1.7 goals per game in their respective away matches this season.