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Spain La Liga

Alaves vs Real Madrid AI Prediction & AI Prediction | La Liga

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Alaves
Real Madrid logo
Real Madrid

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Alaves vs Real Madrid: La Liga Clash of Formidable Hosts and Dominant Visitors

Alaves look to build on recent home form when they host a Real Madrid side that, despite a recent blip, remains statistically dominant. This La Liga encounter pits a resilient home side against a side that typically controls possession and creates ample chances.

Alaves have shown a decent home record this season, securing half of their wins at home while conceding less than a goal per game on average. Their recent form, however, has been patchy, with two losses in their last three overall. Yet, the last match saw a win and a clean sheet, suggesting they can still be resolute. At home, they've managed to improve their scoring output recently, netting one goal in their last home outing, and their passing accuracy remains solid.

Real Madrid are a formidable force in La Liga, boasting an impressive overall record with nearly 70% of their games won and a strong attacking record of two goals per game. While their last fixture ended in a defeat with three goals conceded, their away form overall is still strong, with over half of their wins coming on the road. They maintain high possession numbers and passing accuracy, indicative of their control-oriented style. Despite the recent loss, their away scoring remains potent, averaging two goals per game on their travels.

This fixture is likely to see Real Madrid attempt to dominate possession and probe Alaves' defence, using their superior ball retention and passing range to break down the hosts. Alaves will likely aim to absorb pressure, perhaps dropping into a compact mid-block, and look for opportunities on the counter or from set pieces, where they've averaged nearly six corners per home game. The visitors' high shot volume and accuracy will be a significant challenge for Alaves' defence, especially considering Real Madrid's recent disciplinary issues and tendency to concede in matches.

Real Madrid's overall statistics and away scoring record strongly suggest they will be the dominant force. While Alaves have improved at home recently, Real Madrid's sheer attacking output and control of games usually prevail. The odds reflect this, favouring the visitors heavily. Both teams have shown capacity to score, making 'yes' for BTTS a reasonable bet, and Real Madrid's offensive power points towards an 'over' outcome.

Key points

  • Real Madrid average two goals per game overall and on the road, significantly outscoring Alaves.
  • Alaves have won 50% of their games at home this season.
  • Real Madrid's last match saw them concede 2 goals and lose, while Alaves secured a clean sheet win in their most recent outing.

Team statistics

Spain La Liga
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Team Stats Comparison

Home Team Matches
Away Team Matches
Alaves
VS
Real Madrid
15
Matches played
16
5 - 3 - 7
Results
11 - 3 - 2
33.3%
Win %
68.8%
0.9
Goals scored
2
1
Goals conceded
0.9
3.4
Shots on target
7.1
4.9
Shots off target
7.6
3.1
Blocked shots
5.1
49.1
Ball possession
59.8
80.1
Pass accuracy
88.4
16.3
Fouls
9.6
2.3
Goalkeeper saves
2.2
2.4
Yellow cards
1.9
0.1
Red cards
0.3
League averages

AI Prediction

  • AI
    Confidence
    Pick
    Recent Win% (20)
  • amazon/nova-lite-v1
    nova-lite-v1 (fr)
    by amazon
    85%
    Real Madrid AWAY
    BTTS YES
    2.5 OVER
    1x2
    50%
    O/U
    60%
    BTTS
    53%
  • google/gemini-2.0-flash-lite-001
    gemini-2.0-flash-lite-001 (ar)
    by google
    80%
    Real Madrid AWAY
    BTTS YES
    2.5 OVER
    1x2
    37%
    O/U
    50%
    BTTS
    63%
  • google/gemini-2.0-flash-lite-001
    gemini-2.0-flash-lite-001 (es)
    by google
    70%
    Real Madrid AWAY
    BTTS YES
    2.5 OVER
    1x2
    43%
    O/U
    63%
    BTTS
    57%
  • google/gemini-2.0-flash-lite-001
    gemini-2.0-flash-lite-001 (ru)
    by google
    70%
    Real Madrid AWAY
    BTTS YES
    2.5 OVER
    1x2
    37%
    O/U
    53%
    BTTS
    63%
  • google/gemini-2.0-flash-lite-001
    gemini-2.0-flash-lite-001 (vi)
    by google
    75%
    Real Madrid AWAY
    BTTS YES
    2.5 OVER
    1x2
    40%
    O/U
    50%
    BTTS
    50%
  • google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite
    gemini-2.5-flash-lite (en)
    by google
    75%
    Real Madrid AWAY
    BTTS YES
    2.5 OVER
    1x2
    47%
    O/U
    57%
    BTTS
    60%
  • meta-llama/llama-3.1-8b-instruct
    llama-3.1-8b-instruct (it)
    by meta-llama
    80%
    Real Madrid AWAY
    BTTS YES
    2.5 OVER
    1x2
    47%
    O/U
    60%
    BTTS
    53%
  • meta-llama/llama-3.1-8b-instruct
    llama-3.1-8b-instruct (nl)
    by meta-llama
    85%
    Real Madrid AWAY
    BTTS YES
    2.5 OVER
    1x2
    43%
    O/U
    47%
    BTTS
    57%
  • meta-llama/llama-3.3-70b-instruct
    llama-3.3-70b-instruct (pt)
    by meta-llama
    70%
    Real Madrid AWAY
    BTTS YES
    2.5 OVER
    1x2
    43%
    O/U
    67%
    BTTS
    57%
  • microsoft/phi-4-multimodal-instruct
    phi-4-multimodal-instruct (id)
    by microsoft
    85%
    Real Madrid AWAY
    BTTS YES
    2.5 OVER
    1x2
    37%
    O/U
    43%
    BTTS
    47%
  • mistralai/mistral-nemo
    mistral-nemo (de)
    by mistralai
    72%
    Real Madrid AWAY
    BTTS YES
    2.5 OVER
    1x2
    47%
    O/U
    67%
    BTTS
    67%
  • openai/gpt-oss-120b:exacto
    gpt-oss-120b:exacto (tr)
    by openai
    84%
    Real Madrid AWAY
    BTTS YES
    2.5 OVER
    1x2
    30%
    O/U
    53%
    BTTS
    57%
  • qwen/qwen-turbo
    qwen-turbo (th)
    by qwen
    78%
    Real Madrid AWAY
    BTTS YES
    2.5 OVER
    1x2
    40%
    O/U
    50%
    BTTS
    47%
  • x-ai/grok-4.1-fast
    grok-4.1-fast (ja)
    by x-ai
    85%
    Real Madrid AWAY
    BTTS YES
    2.5 OVER
    1x2
    43%
    O/U
    53%
    BTTS
    63%
  • x-ai/grok-4.1-fast
    grok-4.1-fast (ko)
    by x-ai
    85%
    Real Madrid AWAY
    BTTS YES
    2.5 OVER
    1x2
    50%
    O/U
    53%
    BTTS
    70%

Head-to-head

La Liga
Match dateTeamScoreTeamO/U 2.5BTTS
4/13/2025HOME
Alaves
L 0 - 1 W
Real Madrid
UU
9/24/2024
Alaves
L 2 - 3 W
Real Madrid
AWAY
OO
5/14/2024
Alaves
L 0 - 5 W
Real Madrid
AWAY
OU
12/21/2023HOME
Alaves
L 0 - 1 W
Real Madrid
UU

Team recent

Alaves Team recent

Alaves logo
Alaves
Home Team Matches
Match dateH/AVSScoreResultsO/U 2.5BTTSCor 9.5
12/6/2025
HOME
Alaves1 - 0WUN-
11/29/2025
AWAY
Alaves1 - 3LOY-
11/22/2025
HOME
Alaves0 - 1LUN-
11/8/2025
AWAY
Alaves0 - 1LUN-
11/2/2025
HOME
Alaves2 - 1WOY-
10/26/2025
AWAY
Alaves0 - 1LUN-
10/20/2025
HOME
Alaves0 - 0DUN-
10/5/2025
HOME
Alaves3 - 1WOY-
9/27/2025
AWAY
Alaves0 - 1LUN-
9/24/2025
AWAY
Alaves1 - 1DUY-

Real Madrid Team recent

Real Madrid logo
Real Madrid
Away Team Matches
Match dateH/AVSScoreResultsO/U 2.5BTTSCor 9.5
12/7/2025
HOME
Real Madrid0 - 2LUN-
12/3/2025
AWAY
Real Madrid3 - 0WON-
11/30/2025
AWAY
Real Madrid1 - 1DUY-
11/23/2025
AWAY
Real Madrid2 - 2DOY-
11/9/2025
AWAY
Real Madrid0 - 0DUN-
11/1/2025
HOME
Real Madrid4 - 0WON-
10/26/2025
HOME
Real Madrid2 - 1WOY-
10/19/2025
AWAY
Real Madrid1 - 0WUN-
10/4/2025
HOME
Real Madrid3 - 1WOY-
9/27/2025
AWAY
Real Madrid2 - 5LOY-
O
Over
U
Under
Y
Yes
N
No

Odds

1x2
Alaves
HOME
5.75
DRAW
3.9
Real Madrid
AWAY
1.6
2.5 O/U
OVER
1.8
UNDER
2
BTTS
YES
1.8
NO
1.95
Lineups
Lineup information is currently unavailable. It will be updated 1 hour before kickoff.
Average Player Rating

Injuries / suspensions

Alaves Injuries / suspensions

Alaves logo
Alaves
NameReasonTypeG/A
J. GuridiKnee InjuryQuestionable0 / 0
F. GarcesSuspendedMissing Fixture0 / 0

Real Madrid Injuries / suspensions

Real Madrid logo
Real Madrid
NameReasonTypeG/A
D. AlabaMuscle InjuryMissing Fixture0 / 0
T. Alexander-ArnoldThigh InjuryMissing Fixture0 / 1
E. CamavingaAnkle InjuryMissing Fixture1 / 0
A. CarrerasRed CardMissing Fixture1 / 1
D. CarvajalKnee InjuryMissing Fixture0 / 0
Eder MilitaoHamstring InjuryMissing Fixture1 / 1
EndrickRed CardMissing Fixture0 / 0
F. GarciaRed CardMissing Fixture0 / 0
F. MendyMuscle InjuryMissing Fixture0 / 0
K. MbappeKnee InjuryQuestionable16 / 4
D. HuijsenMuscle InjuryQuestionable1 / 1

League table

#TeamPlayedWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1Barcelona17141249202943WWWWW
2Real Madrid16113232151736LWDDD
3Villarreal15112231131835WWWWW
4Atletico Madrid17104330161434WLLWW
5Espanyol169342016430WWWWL
6Real Betis156632519624LWDDW
7Athletic Club167271520-523WLWLW
8Getafe166281318-520LLWLL
9Elche164751920-119LWLDD
10Celta Vigo154741819-119WLWLW
11Alaves155371315-218WLLLW
12Rayo Vallecano154561316-317LDDDL
13Sevilla155282024-417DLLWL
14Mallorca164571823-517WDDLW
15Real Sociedad164482024-416LLLWD
16Osasuna164391420-615LWDLL
17Valencia163671525-1015LDDWD
18Girona163671530-1515WLDDW
19Oviedo15249722-1510DLDLD
20Levante1523101628-129LLLLL